Nicaragua: Re-election of Ortega (pub. Nov. 5, 2006)

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Event

Former Nicaraguan President José Daniel Ortega Saavedra (1985-90), of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), secured 38.06 per cent of the popular vote in the first round of presidential elections contested on Nov. 5, 2006, thereby confirming his return to power some 16 years after his first term in office had ended. Ortega’s main rival, Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (LAN), won 29 per cent, whilst José Rizo Castellón, the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (CLP) candidate, trailed in third place with 26.21 per cent. Under Nicaraguan electoral law, a second round of voting was unnecessary if the leading candidate won at least 35 per cent of the vote and led the nearest rival by a margin of at least 5 per cent.

Immediate Context

Ortega first came to power in Nicaragua in 1979 as part of a five-person "provisional junta of national reconstruction", which assumed office after the FSLN had led a successful armed rebellion against the government of former President General Anastasio Somoza Debayle (1974-79), who resigned from office on July 17, 1979, when FSLN guerrillas had gained control of most of the country. Ortega was elected as Nicaragua’s President in 1985 and led a government characterised by its leftist policies and strained relations with the USA; the latter supported a guerrilla war against the new government by right-wing Contra rebels based in Honduras and Costa Rica. Ortega left office after suffering a surprise defeat by Violeta Barrios de Chamorro in presidential elections contested in 1990, and he failed to regain the presidency despite running as a candidate in elections contested in 1996 and 2001.

Reaction and Outlook

Many Western media reports cited Ortega's "revolutionary" past as a cause for concern about his future handling of the country's economy, but on Nov. 8 he vowed to avoid radical economic reforms, in an apparent attempt to allay the fears of investors and business leaders. Although Ortega had campaigned on a centre-left platform, including a pledge to support a proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Nicaragua and the USA, many analysts considered his victory to be a "blow" for the US government, which was reportedly concerned about the possibility of Nicaragua forging closer ties with the left-wing governments of Venezuela and Cuba, both of which were disapproved of by the USA. During a victory rally on Nov. 8, Ortega described Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias and Cuban President Fidel Castro Ruiz as his "beloved brothers".

Historical Context

Relations between the USA and Nicaragua soured in 1927-1933 when General Augusto Cesar Sandino led an armed campaign to oust US troops from Nicaragua, where they had established military bases. Sandino, who had inspired the formation in 1961 of the FSLN (Sandinista was a direct reference to Sandino) was, however, assassinated in 1934, leading to the election in 1937 of General Anastasio Somoza Garcia, whose family went on to dominate Nicaraguan politics until his ouster in 1979. Somoza was himself assassinated in 1956, when he was replaced by his son Luis Somoza Debayle. After the "revolutionary" FSLN government took control in 1979, it faced growing internal opposition from US-backed Contra rebels, prompting the Ortega administration to file a series of complaints against the USA with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague. The ICJ ruled on June 27, 1986, that the USA had acted in breach of its obligations under international law not to intervene in the affairs of another state, adding that the USA was "under an obligation to make reparations" to Nicaragua for damages caused by its illegal intervention. The conflict between Ortega’s government and Contra rebels finally ended on June 27, 1990, after the two parties had signed ceasefire agreements in March and May 1990.

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