Australia: Electoral defeat for Prime Minister Howard - full text

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The Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Kevin Rudd, 50, swept to power in federal legislative elections held in Australia on Nov. 24, thereby ending 11 years of rule by Prime Minister John Howard, 68, and his Liberal-National coalition. Results published on Nov. 26 by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) showed that, with 77.59 per cent of the vote counted, Rudd’s ALP had secured a landslide victory, winning 83 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives (the lower house of Parliament, the bicameral federal legislature), whilst Howard’s ruling Liberal-National coalition had won 48 seats. The results also indicated that the ALP would win the constituency seat of Bennelong, the seat Howard had held since 1974, meaning that Howard would become the first prime minister to lose his constituency seat since 1929.

Immediate Context

The ALP’s victory heralded only the sixth change of government in Australia since World War II. The ALP’s triumph, however, was not unexpected. Despite presiding over a sustained economic boom and a period of low unemployment, Prime Minister Howard’s ruling Liberal-National coalition in October was trailing the ALP by at least 10 percentage points in all leading opinion polls. A televised debate in October between Howard and Rudd was regarded by analysts as having given further credibility to Rudd as a viable alternative to Howard.

Howard in January had announced a cabinet reshuffle, in what was seen as a response to the growing challenge from the ALP, which under its recently elected leader, Rudd, had increased its lead in opinion polls to 10 percentage points, with Rudd's personal popularity almost matching that of Howard.

Most analysts agreed that Howard’s government had lost support amongst the electorate over its controversial industrial relations legislation, Australia's continuing involvement in the war in Iraq, and a recent rise in interest rates. Public opinion had also turned against Howard because of his policies on the environment, most notably his refusal to sign the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which set targets for the reduction of carbon emissions, leaving Australia as the only industrialised country apart from the USA not to have ratified the agreement.

In January 2003, Rudd, then the ALP’s foreign affairs spokesman, had condemned Howard’s polices on Iraq, saying that he was behaving irresponsibly and "jumping the gun" by sending troops to Iraq before UN weapons inspectors had completed their work. He accused the prime minister of being "grossly out of step with the Australian people". During the election campaign, Rudd had pledged to give Australia a leading role in international attempts to combat global warming and had vowed to ratify the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and withdraw Australian combat troops from Iraq.

Reaction and Outlook

Prime Minister Howard conceded defeat late on Nov. 24, accepting "full personal responsibility" for the Liberal-National coalition’s downfall, the BBC online news service reported that day. Shortly after conceding defeat, Howard, in a speech delivered to supporters in Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, said that Australia was "a great democracy", adding that his government was bequeathing to Rudd a "nation that is stronger and prouder and more prosperous" than it was before he first assumed power.

Prime Minister-elect Rudd, who spoke fluent Mandarin, was expected to forge closer diplomatic relations with China and operate what the Reuters news agency described on Nov. 23 as a "more independent" foreign policy, an apparent reference to a commonly held perception that Howard’s major foreign policy decisions were influenced by the US government. However, Rudd on Nov. 23 promised that Australia would retain its close alliance with the USA.

The BBC reported on Nov. 24 that, shortly after learning of his victory, Rudd vowed to "forge a new consensus by ending the old battles of the past" between business and unions and between economic growth and environmental concerns. He also said that Australian voters had "looked to the future" and pledged to be "a prime minister for all Australians".

It was widely reported that US President George W. Bush responded to the election result by praising Howard’s leadership and congratulating Rudd on his triumph, whilst an official statement from the White House said that the USA and Australia had "long been strong partners and allies" and that the Bush administration looked forward to working with Rudd’s "new government to continue our historic relationship".

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, cited by Reuters on Nov. 24, said that Rudd had already told him that he was fully committed to signing the Kyoto Protocol.

Historical Context

Prime Minister Howard first entered government in December 1975, when he was appointed to the cabinet of Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser’s Liberal-National government as business and consumer affairs minister. He subsequently served as minister for special trade negotiations with the European Economic Community (EEC) and as treasurer in Fraser administrations.

Howard became the deputy leader of the Liberal Party (LP) in April 1982, before assuming the party’s leadership post in January 1985. He caused widespread controversy in June 1988 when he called for a reduction in the proportion of Asian immigrants moving to Australia, who at that time accounted for around one-third of Australia’s annual intake of immigrants. The following year, in May 1989, Howard was ousted as the LP leader, after being criticised for seeming to lack the charisma required to capitalise on widespread public discontent with the ALP administration of Prime Minister Bob Hawke, which had been in office since 1983. Howard was, however, re-elected as LP leader in January 1995, leading the party to a historic victory in federal legislative elections held in March 1996 and thereby ending 13 years of ALP rule.

Howard’s ruling Liberal-National coalition was returned to office, with a much reduced majority, in federal legislative elections held in October 1998, and secured a third term in office in November 2001, after an election campaign that exploited popular fears of illegal immigration by mostly Muslim asylum seekers and in an atmosphere of anxiety in the wake of the attacks against the USA on Sept. 11, 2001. The Liberal-National coalition in October 2004 won decisive majorities in both houses of Parliament, giving Howard a fourth term in government.

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