Environment: Call for agreement to replace Kyoto Protocol - full text
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In a speech in Beijing on Aug. 20, Tony Blair, the former UK prime minister and partner of The Climate Group, called on the USA and China to build an agreement to tackle climate change. Neither the USA nor China had been prepared to accept binding cuts in greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the UN climate summit due in December. China, like many developing countries, had argued that it produced a low level of emissions per capita and should be free to focus on development. The USA had refused to countenance cuts that could damage its economy and argued that any emissions reduction scheme which did not include the developing world would be doomed to fail. Blair called for a consensus among industrialised and developing nations even if precise reductions in emissions could not be agreed. He stated that asking consumers for large personal sacrifices, such as foregoing car ownership, would be unsuccessful, but dangerous climate change could be averted by harnessing green technology.
Immediate Context
The visit to China by Tony Blair aimed to encourage the USA and China to forge an agreement on climate change. Chinese negotiators had been unwilling to accept emissions cuts for China, arguing that development must not be slowed to deal with a problem created by industrialised countries. India maintained a similar position and also contributed a growing proportion of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions. The USA had refused to accept cuts in greenhouse gas emissions as it had argued that they would be economically damaging and that there would be no benefit from an emissions reduction framework which did not include India and China. As the USA and China contributed about 40 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2008, their co-operation was seen as vital to securing a workable agreement on climate change.
The Kyoto Protocol produced mixed results. The ratifying of a global agreement on climate change backed by legally binding targets was a significant achievement, but implementation has generally been poor. World emissions increased by 38 per cent between 1992 and 2007 and most countries had failed to meet their obligations under the treaty. Even among EU countries, generally the most supportive of tough emissions targets, most are not on track to meet their targets. The UK and Sweden were the only EU countries found to be on track to meet their agreed emission levels in a 2006 study.
Reaction and Outlook
Tony Blairs visit to China was part of efforts to build a consensus on climate change ahead of the Copenhagen climate summit in December 2009. The aim of the summit would be to agree a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol on its expiry in 2012. Preliminary talks in Bonn produced some progress on adaptation to climate change but the central issue of China, India, and the USAs part in the agreement remained unresolved.
The emphasis on green technology in Blairs speech was criticised by some environmental groups who argued that he campaigning for unachievable targets. Jim Watson of the Tyndall Centre (an organisation of climate academics) said, "To suggest that we can solve everything with technology is unrealistic." He agreed with Blair that "consumer habits have to change, but we should not rule out a reconsideration of the ever greater access to transport".
Historical Context
The possibility of anthropogenic climate change was first raised in the 19th century and early experiments showed the potential of carbon dioxide, water vapour, and other gases to contribute to a greenhouse effect. However, there was little agreement amongst scientists at the time on the likely effects of greenhouse gas emissions. By the early 20th century the situation was still poorly understood with some scientists predicting that carbon dioxide emissions would stabilise global temperatures and prevent a new ice age.
In 1957 Roger Revelle, a US oceanographer, argued that the large scale carbon dioxide emissions of modern industry could make global warming a reality. He suggested that humanity was effectively undertaking a "large scale geophysical experiment" in the Earths atmosphere. However, climate change only received global political attention with the First World Climate Conference in 1979. The conference ended with a call to governments to prevent climate change but produced no treaty or binding agreement.
The first serious move towards a binding emissions treaty among the industrialised nations began at the G-7 (Group of Seven) summit in 1989. The same year the US government declared itself committed to a framework agreement on climate change, as long as it included the rest of the world. This contrasted strongly with earlier denials of the existence of climate change. The scientific research to back an agreement was to be provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN body. The IPCC reported in 1990 that the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation were likely to produce temperature increases and sea level rises.
The Rio Earth Summit was held in 1992 with the intention of producing a treaty on the prevention of climate change. The IPCC produced a report for the summit in which it declared that the reality of global warming was "more certain than ever" and that future temperature rises of 0.2 to 0.5 degrees centigrade per decade were likely. The summit was a success with 154 states signing the Framework Convention on Climate Change which committed them to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Mandatory limits on emissions and enforcement mechanisms were left for a subsequent summit.
The setting of emissions reduction targets was not achieved until the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997. The agreement set out legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas output by developed nations but these were criticised as too weak by environmental groups. The Protocol did not come into force until 2005 as many states were slow to ratify it and demanded further weakening of its provisions first. The USA refused to ratify the Protocol on economic grounds.
